The following article appears in the 25th anniversary issue of World Policy Journal. For the month of November, read the entire 25th anniversary issue, fall 2008, for free!
By Theodor H. Winkler
One can argue that we live today in relatively peaceful times. Organized violence was throughout most of history, both in absolute and relative terms, a much more prevalent part of mankind’s daily life than today— from antiquity to the twentieth century. European integration has pacified the old continent. The creation of the United Nations has provided us with an instrument of collective security that can, if permitted, work. The threat of an all-out nuclear exchange has receded.
Still, conflict, in its traditional form of organized violence between two states or coalitions of states, continues to exist. Examples include the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the U.S. campaigns against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, and the possibility of a U.S.-Israeli attack against Iran’s emerging nuclear capabilities. A significant amount of the world’s military power and arms procurement is still invested in coping with such contingencies. It cannot be excluded that the risk of traditional conflict might grow again in the years to come. Should the United States—in many respects the world’s de facto hegemon—be perceived as being increasingly tied down in Iraq, Afghanistan, and possibly other critical hot spots, and thus be seen as unable (or unwilling) to react to new challenges, then the temptation would develop for many to seize the initiative and create military faits accomplis. One may argue that the Iranian nuclear program is just such an attempt.
Most conflicts in the twenty-first century, however, are no longer of a traditional nature. Continue reading…
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