THE INDEX — June 29, 2009

Russian President Dimitri Medvedev completed a four-day, four-country tour of Africa on Friday with a visit to former Cold War-ally Angola. In a press conference alongside Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos (an ex-military man who received his training in the USSR), Medvedev announced several joint economic programs between the two countries, including a large cooperative effort between Russian state-oil company Zarbuezhneft and Angolan state-oil company Sonangol to explore Angola’s hydrocarbon reserves. Industry analysts see the new relations as significant, as Russia is the largest oil-producing country outside of OPEC, the oil cartel of which Angola currently holds the rotating presidency. “The oil market should not depend on the state of affairs in one economy,” Medvedev said, a clear jab at the United States and its influence on OPEC prices. Earlier on his trip, Medvedev made efforts to broaden Russian investment in Nigeria, which rivals Angola in petroleum output. Last Wednesday, Russian oil firm Gazprom established a split venture with state-run Nigerian National Petroleum Corp.

In a report released late Sunday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) urged France to reduce deficits and borrowing to avoid a massive budget crisis in the coming years. In 2008, France’s deficit stood at 3.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), slightly above the 3 percent mark that European Union states are mandated to remain below. But for 2009 and 2010, the government and the IMF are now expecting the deficit to reach nearly 7.5 percent of GDP, which would amount to a record level in Europe’s second-largest economy. French President Nikolas Sarkozy has committed to a robust public investment plan that largely defies the IMF warnings. His pledge to avoid “austerity” is increasingly less common among European nations that appear less focused on stimulus than on controlling potential inflation. The IMF report stipulates that Sarkozy must commit to contracting public spending and even goes so far to suggest that he raise the retirement age to above 60 in order to combat “rising debt-service obligations [that] will aggravate the fiscal costs related to population aging.” Costs are mounting, but ever the politician, Sarkozy has repeatedly stressed that he will not raise taxes.

A curfew has been imposed in Honduras following Sunday’s Supreme Court-ordered military coup that ousted Former President Manuel Zelaya. In response to raging street protests condemning the forced removal of Zelaya to Costa Rica from his home in the capital city of Tegucigalpa, newly appointed President Roberto Micheletti has ordered a 48-hour curfew that will run through Tuesday. Leaders from both North America and South America have condemned Sunday’s coup and have recognized Zelaya as the “duly elected and constitutional” president of Honduras. This morning, Fidel Castro, a close ally of Zelaya, wrote a letter to the Cuban newspaper Invasor, calling the coup “a suicidal mistake,” while Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez openly accused the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of carrying out the coup. Mexican media reported today that Zelaya will take part in an emergency regional summit in Nicaragua to discuss the Honduran coup, the first such takeover since the end of the Cold War. The Honduran Supreme Court ordered the military to oust Zelaya after he moved forward with plans to hold an illegal referendum on Sunday, which would have sought to extend Zelaya’s rule by an additional 4-year term.
Israel has stepped up efforts to stop Russia from selling “hundreds of millions of dollars” worth of air-defense supplies to Iran, according to Haaretz. The Israeli daily reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently called his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, and asked to annul an arms deal signed in 2007 between Moscow and Tehran. The deal would provide Iran with S-300 defense mechanisms, the “most effective all-altitude regional air defense systems” available in today’s market. The agreement has been stalled by Russia mainly due to pressure from the United States and Israel who worry that such defense systems would threaten the military stability in the region. However, Israel’s concerns with the deal reached new highs after Russian president Dmitri Medvedev informed Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman that Russia is “having a very difficult time” with the economic crisis and is in need of the money promised by Tehran. President Barack Obama is expected to discuss the matter with Medvedev next week in Moscow.

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