[Editor's note: The theme of the Winter 2010-2011 issue of World Policy Journal is “Megalopolis: The City of the 21st Century.” We asked experts, policymakers, and writers from around the world to answer this question: “In the future, what will our cities look like?”]
By Richard Dobbs and Shirish Sankhe
Some 600 cities will account for 60 percent of the world’s economic growth over the next two decades—with Delhi, Shanghai, São Paulo and Moscow each reaching a GDP in excess of $500 billion by 2025—more than the GDP of entire nations such as Indonesia or Belgium today.
The central role of cities in global growth is due to the benefits of agglomeration—industry and service sectors in cities having a higher productivity than in a rural setting. It is also around 30 percent to 50 percent cheaper to deliver basic services such as water, housing and education in cities than in a rural setting. Managed badly, cities could become centers of thoroughly unpleasant, even dangerous decay and gridlock. Managed well and they will drive the world’s prosperity. The challenge is how to stay ahead of the curve in urban infrastructure, planning, and ensuring environmental sustainability.
Richard Dobbs is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute and Shirish Sankhe is a director on Mumbai for McKinsey.
Photo from Flickr via Benjamin Thompson.