Ebola: 'Rollercoaster Ride' to Zero Cases

This article was origionally posted on Ebola Deeply.

By Ebola Deeply

While authorities and NGOs in Liberia and Sierra Leone can now see the light at the end of the tunnel, social mobilization campaigns are being ramped up in Guinea, designed to help the Francophone country catch up with its Anglophone neighbors.

Last week, Guinea’s President Alpha Conde announced a 45-day Ebola emergency in five prefectures. Already, authorities have begun using the emergency period to isolate cases and step up messaging about Ebola and its transmission. Many families, they say, continue to hide suspected cases in their homes. For Ebola to go away, they must first tackle the fear and rumors that persist here.

The government has modeled this new drive on Sierra Leone’s lockdowns and quarantine measures.

Dr. Sakoba Keita, the head of the Ebola national coordination committee in Guinea, told me that "certain areas are being targeted and quarantined, just like in Sierra Leone. This allows us to break individual chains of transmission."

What measures have been taken to improve messaging and social mobilization? Mohammed Sylla, who leads a social mobilization team in Conakry, said it’s still tough to get the message across to people.

"We’ve been out in communities every day since the 45-day Ebola emergency was announced," he said. "We go to households, and we sit down with community leaders. There are many challenges, but so far, we haven’t encountered any violent incidents. Some families don’t want to listen to us, but they do end up collaborating in the end."

In terms of numbers, Guinea hasn’t been hit as hard by Ebola as its neighbors. Of more than 25,000 cases in the region tracked by the World Health Organization (WHO), 3,515 confirmed, suspected, and probable cases come from Guinea. Of those, 2,333 have died. In Liberia and Sierra Leone, the figures are much higher. Liberia saw 9,862 cases, and Sierra Leone has seen 12,138 cases.

In January 2015, WHO data suggested that the outbreak was on the way out in Guinea. Ebola treatment units began scaling down, and authorities decided to reopen schools and universities.

But then figures began to rise again. In the week leading up to March 18, there were 95 new confirmed cases in Guinea. Two weeks later, there were another 57 confirmed cases. The week leading up to April 8 saw a total of 21 new cases. A small victory, perhaps, but who knows what next week will bring. The road to zero in Guinea is more like a rollercoaster.

The weakest spot is the west of the country, in and around Conakry. The prefectures of Coyah, Dubreka, Forecariah, Fria, and Kindia are also reporting cases. Worst of all, the death toll has been consistently high in Guinea. About 66 percent of all cases have resulted in deaths, perhaps because people are slow to seek treatment when so much fear and stigma still surrounds this virus.

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[Photo courtesy of Ebola Deeply]

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