THE INDEX — August 24, 2009

Abdullah Abdullah, the main opposition candidate in Afghanistan’s presidential election last week, is alleging widespread vote rigging, citing 225 claims of abuse and saying that he is ahead in the count. Many are speculating a run-off between Abdullah and current president Hamid Karzai, who also claims to be leading. To avoid a second round of voting, one candidate would need to win a majority of votes, but that it is appearing unlikely that either candidate will have more than 50 percent. Results are not due until next month, and Afghan and Western officials are calling for calm from both sides. Abdullah has widespread support from Tajiks, who are situated mainly in the north, while Karzai ran strongly in the Pashtun-dominated southern areas. Election authorities are expected to release turnout numbers this week, but they are expected to be much lower than the previous election in 2004. Meanwhile, an Afghan provincial official said local leaders plan to step up reconciliation efforts with the Taliban once the election has been decided. “We have seen that they also are interested — that the middle-level Taliban are also interested in reconciliation,” Helmand governor Gullab Mangal told a U.S. general. The Taliban used intimidation and threats of violence last week in an attempt to prevent Afghans from participating in the election. There were a number of violent incidents scattered throughout the country last week largely attributed to the Taliban.

An Israeli official has accused the outgoing head of the International Atomic Energy Agency of withholding information on Iran’s nuclear program, saying Mohamed ElBaradei has been “quite duplicitous during his entire tenure.” The anonymous official told Agence-France Presse that ElBaradei “has been quite negligent in revealing all the difficulties that the monitors have in Iran and also in not exposing the full picture of the deception and acceleration of (its) illegal military nuclear activities.” This comes after Haaretz, the Israeli newspaper, quoted unnamed Israeli officials as saying that the IAEA has refrained from publishing information that points to weaponization efforts and a military nuclear program. While ElBaradei has said the agencyhas no evidence Iran is working toward a nuclear weapon, the officials said evidence was presented to the IAEA in a classified document. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in Europe this week to meet with British prime minister Gordon Brown, U.S. Mideast envoy George Mitchell and German chancellor Angela Merkel and is expected to press “the need for maximum pressure on Iran to stop its plans and efforts to develop nuclear weapons.”

The Honduran Supreme Court warned ousted President Manuel Zelaya that he faces arrest if he attempts to return to the country and has rejected a deal that would have restored his presidency. The court said Zelaya “cannot avoid having to submit to established procedures of the penal process” if he tries to re-enter Honduras. The court also accused Zelaya of “crimes against the government, treason against the nation, abuse of power” and other misdeeds while affirming the legitimacy of the interim leader Roberto Micheletti as a “constitutional succession.” Costa Rica recently mediated a proposal that would have returned Zelaya to power, given him amnesty for political crimes and would have called for early elections. Still, it appears this deal will go nowhere. Zelaya has been exiled since June 28 when he was forced from office over his proposal for a referendum on constitutional changes. Critics charged him with attempting to remove the current one-term presidential limit, which would have allowed him to run for re-election.

For the first time in 14 months, Cuban leader Fidel Castro appeared in a video, talking with Venezuelan law students and looking healthier than he had previously. Castro, who is recovering from major intestinal surgery, is shown in a track suit at his home with students from the University of Carabobo. He is shown discussing global warming, saying, “We are witnessing very, very, very grave developments. I would say grave for our very survival.” This weekend, a photograph in a state-run newspaper showed Castro meeting with Ecuadorean president Rafael Correa. Visitors who have seen Castro recently have said he appears much fitter than he has in the past. Still, Castro has not been seen in public since 2006 and was last seen in a video meeting with Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, who said Castro had “fully recovered” from surgery. Castro, who is still head of the Cuban Communist Party, turns 83 this month.


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