By Diane Sammak
On Wednesday, February 11, the World Policy Institute held a private luncheon and discussion with speaker Ian Bremmer, a senior fellow at WPI and founder of the Eurasia Group. Members of both the private sector and civil society gathered at noon to listen to Bremmer discuss current events and how they play into his projections on the future of globalization.
With his mic hooked up, Bremmer took to the stage in an effortless fashion and presented his analysis of the world order at large. According to Bremmer, we are currently undergoing a period of change, which he refers to as “geopolitical creative destruction.” The last time the world underwent such a social, political, and economic rebirth was after the Second World War, when the United States established a new world order with the G7.
Since WW2, the United States has been at the forefront of the world, almost unilaterally, causing the growth in both globalization and Americanization to be identical. Despite the U.S.’s scope of power in the past, Bremmer predicts that this synonymy of globalization and the export of American ideals, policies, and products, will no longer be the case. Although globalization will continue to flourish, he claims Americanization will see a decline, stating, “the idea that you can have US-led global institutions is over.”
With his work focused on geopolitical risk, Bremmer discussed the future of Americanization in relation to a number of regional topics and his predictions on their position in the new world order. Before taking questions from the audience, he delved into topics on the growing powers of China, Russia, and Germany, and the future of relations in the Middle East.
U.S. Foreign Policy
With the previous world order built around NATO, the transatlantic divide is still very much well and present. Bremmer sees a growing gap between the United States and Europe right now. The United States is slowly starting to take on a more Chinese approach to foreign policy, with domestic interests at the forefront of their strategy. Bremmer does not attribute this to a resurgence of isolationism, but rather the revival of unilateralism.
On Germany & China
In discussing the transatlantic divide, Bremmer believes Germany is leading Europe at the moment. This is because they too have taken on a very un-American approach to their international relations. Germany is a lot more focused on commercial ties, and has taken advantage of those relations with China. Rather than discuss issues relating to the East China Sea or their projection of naval power, Germany is more interested in building up partnerships and looking for industrial investments to develop technology.
Bremmer expanded on this point by indicating the very passive role that China took in Africa with the Ebola epidemic or in the Middle East with ISIS. China’s foreign policy has different drivers and produces different patterns for how they see the world should work. This has been mutually beneficial for both Germany and China, and the future of their economies.
On Russia
Moving from China back to Europe, Bremmer also discussed how notions that Russia is becoming a pariah state come from a narrow perspective—one that could have once been true when Americanization was still on the rise. The power of the U.S., however, is less asymmetrical than it used to be. In today’s global arena, the mere fact that the U.S. has isolated a state does not mean that the state in question is suffering from total international isolation as well. In fact, with the unfolding of the Ukraine crisis, Russia has been pushed towards making more negotiations and economic investments with China and other emerging states.
Moreover, Bremmer was very critical of the international community’s involvement with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The United States, Europe, and Canada were all very vocal about their support for the Ukrainian cause; however, they fell short of delivering on their promises when the time for military action came. What baffled Bremmer most was the question of why the international community thought that it would be able to prevent Putin (the most powerful man in the world) from invading Ukraine, and how they expected to go about doing so.
On the Middle East
Where Bremmer does think the U.S. is gaining ground is the Iran deal. He attributed his optimism for the current state of the agreement, due to months of talks between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, as well as to a strained U.S.-Israel relationship, and the continual decline in oil prices. Despite potential negotiations with Iran, Bremmer does caution that the U.S. and Iran support opposing sides in the Middle East conflict. Case in point, in the fight against ISIS, the U.S. is supporting the Kurds, whilst Iran has been supporting the Iraqi government. Similarly while Iran has been supporting the Syrian government, the U.S. has publicly condemned the Assad regime. Comparable with other regions around the world, Bremmer believes that the U.S.’s geopolitics could be a potential deal breaker to negotiations, and a hindrance to economic investments in emerging markets.
Bremmer believes that in the coming decades, there will be more geopolitical destruction going forward, not less. It will help Americans in some ways, and hurt Americans in others. The current state of affairs are very volatile right now, and questions as to whether therewill be another cold war, or if China and the U.S. will truly be adversaries, are still not clear. He claims there are a lot of factors shaping the prospects of the world order 20 years from now, and because we we are currently undergoing the creative destruction, we are still unaware of what will come out the other side.
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Diane Sammak is a communications and research associate at the World Policy Institute.
[Photos courtesy of Sophie des Beauvais]